Will the ECB Provide Clues for Future Monetary Policy?

Yesterday was a day of mixed sentiment on financial markets. The Euro seems to be largely ignoring the ugly political situation in Spain, even as their main stock index, the IBEX 35 is close to freefall.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Yesterday was a day of mixed sentiment on financial markets. The Euro seems to be largely ignoring the ugly political situation in Spain, even as their main stock index, the IBEX 35 is close to freefall. Sterling traded within a reasonably tight bracket, even as the Services PMI number surprised slightly to the upside.

The key political event, the climax of the Conservative party conference and Theresa May’s keynote speech, was plagued by a catalogue of embarrassments. Boris Johnson re-affirmed his support for the PM, but questions as to her future in charge remain.

The US dollar resumed an upward trajectory, strong ISM numbers suggest the US economy ends Q3 in a very strong position. Those with interest in the US dollar are holding their breath for the blockbuster payroll report on Friday.

Today's Market Highlights

This morning we have seen Australian monthly retail sales come in at -0.6%, this is 0.3% lower than the forecasted figure. This however hasn’t seen a huge movement for the pound against the Australian Dollar. At the same time from Australia, we have seen Trade Balance data come out as 0.99 Billion, this shows that more goods and services were exported than imported over the predicted amount of 0.88 Billion.

We have the same Trade Balance data coming from Canada and The US at 13:30, The Canadian figure is more significant for market movement than the US counterpart, as Canada relies on 75% of its exports being purchased by the US. This afternoon’s data will also consist of US unemployment claims, currently forecast at 266K which is slightly below last week’s actual figure of 272K.

Continuing the afternoon session across the pond, we have Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powel speaking at 14:10 about the Treasury Markets Practices Group and FOMC member Patrick Harker speaking in Austin at a conference about investing in America’s workforce at 15:00.

There is no hard UK data out today, however sterling traders will be keeping an eye on the BOE’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane’s potentially hawkish comments later tonight as he delivers a presentation tonight at 18:30, titled “Central Bank Engagement with Society”.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:10 EUR Retail PMI 50.8
09:30 GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -9.9B -10.4B
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.69|1.5
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.67|2.0
12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 5.1%
1:30 CAD Trade Balance -2.6B -3.0B
USD Unemployment Claims 266K 272K
USD Trade Balance -42.7B -43.7B
2:10 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
3:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD Factory Orders m/m 1.0% -3.3%
3:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 56B 58B
5:00 GBP MPC Member McCafferty Speaks
6:30 GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks