Waiting for December

After the US dollar strengthened yesterday, today sees a busy economic calendar to end the week.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The US dollar strengthened as the market focus began to shift away from the midterm election results and on to the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve. While interest rates remained unchanged, the Fed laid the ground for a hike at their next meeting in December, as forecast. The accompanying rate statement was little changed however did indicate the the Fed believed business investment to have moderated from its fast pace earlier in the year. 
 
The European Commission also released their latest growth forecasts for the EU, revising down their 2019 GDP forecast to 1.9% and flagging risks over Italy’s planned budget deficit. This weighed on the Euro and caused GBP/EUR to briefly break the key physiological 1.15 level. 
 
Sterling was dragged lower on the day however after rumours of the UK asking Brussels for more time to agree a Brexit deal, throwing the planned November deadline into doubt. Other economic data was of little significance, with US employment claims and Canadian housing starts being broadly in line with forecasts. 
 
Finally, crude oil prices fell once again, nearing 3 month lows as investors focused on supply increasing at a quicker rate than previously expected. WTI crude has now fallen into a bear market having fallen over 20% from its peak in October. 

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1484 1.1506 1.1172 2.90%
GBP/USD 1.3018 1.3258 1.2691 4.28%
EUR/USD 1.1335 1.1621 1.1302 2.75%
GBP/AUD 1.7974 1.8619 1.7857 4.09%
GBP/NZD 1.9311 2.0347 1.9285 5.22%
GBP/CAD 1.7168 1.7261 1.6637 3.62%

Today's Market Highlights

Today sees a busy economic calendar to end the week, with the main focus being the preliminary UK GDP figures for Q3. This will give market participants their latest look at UK economic growth as Brexit related uncertainties continue to weigh on investment and consumer sentiment. The release is forecast to show growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. As always, sterling will also remain susceptible to any Brexit related news. 
 
Focus for the US dollar will likely turn towards the PPI (Producer Price Index) figures this afternoon, forecasts to increase at 2.5% year over year, unchanged from the previous release. USD traders will also look to the UoM Consumer Sentiment figures to gauge the interest rate rises on consumers. 
 
Central bank speakers are limited to the ECB’s Cœuré and Fed voter Quarles. Looking ahead to next week, the main highlights include UK earnings figures and inflation releases from the UK, US and Eurozone. The US and Canadian markets will be closed on Monday for Veterans Day.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP (Q3) q/q 0.6% 0.4%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.1% 0.0%
1:30pm USD PPI y/y 2.5% 2.5%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.0 98.6