USD Softer on Slower Wages

The dollar weakened Friday on a mixed jobs report. A quiet calendar today leaves headlines in focus.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Markets were relatively quiet on Friday, trading sideways during the morning session, with little market reaction to a lower-than-forecast rise in UK production figures. Sterling-euromade some further headway above 1.12 but was otherwise largely unchanged, while sterling-dollar eventually moved higher towards 1.39 after the dollar softened on a mixed jobs report. Euro-dollar held around 1.23.
 
The US unexpectedly added 313K jobs to the economy in February (the figures for the previous two months were revised higher as well), but the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% and wage growth slowed from the previous month, more so than had been forecast. Overall, this outweighed the strong NonFarms figure and the dollar was softer against both the pound and the euro.
 
The Canadian dollar rallied after February’s Unemployment Rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9%, although Net Employment Change was lower than expected, and as the US dollar softened. Sterling-loonie fell below 1.78. The loonie had also been supported in the second half of the week by Trump’s softer tone on tariffs towards NAFTA partners.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1242 1.1399 1.1150 2.18%
GBP/USD 1.3870 1.4150 1.3711 3.10%
EUR/USD 1.2337 1.2556 1.2154 3.20%
GBP/AUD 1.7616 1.7913 1.7574 1.89%
GBP/NZD 1.8955 1.9280 1.8925 1.84%
GBP/CAD 1.7769 1.8051 1.7394 3.64%

Today's Market Highlights

The calendar is light today. This may mean that market movement will be relatively contained and that attention will mainly be on any political headlines, particularly regarding Brexit negotiations or US tariffs. Any such headlines could see a knee-jerk reaction.
 
Items to keep an eye on today include the US’s Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 GMT), a speech from Acting RBNZ Governor Grant on macro-prudential policy (23:45 GMT), and Australian Home Loans. Note that US clocks went forward on Sunday, which pushes forward release times by an hour GMT. Clocks go forward in the UK on 25 March.
 
Later in the week, highlights include the UK’s Spring Statement, a speech from ECB President Draghi, and US CPI and Retail Sales, both of which are forecast to have picked up in February. The calendar is relatively mid-level this week ahead of meetings of the Fed and the BoE the following week, as well as the latest EU Summit on the 22nd, which will keep Brexit headlines in sharp focus.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
24hr AUD Labour Day
24hr EUR Eurogroup Meetings
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (Feb) $-222.6B $49.0B
23:45 NZD Acting RBNZ Gov Grant Speaks
00:30 AUD Home Loans (Jan) 0.0% -2.3%

Caxton