Previous Day's Market Highlights
Brexit concerns, particularly over the Irish border and agreeing a transition period deal, continued to broadly weigh on the pound. The euro ended the day down after initially gaining on the ECB’s policy statement, which in removing its easing bias—a sentence that indicated that the ECB was ready to increase asset purchases if needed—was likely less dovish than some investors had expected.
As a result, the euro moved 0.4% higher against the dollar and 0.3% higher against the pound, but it then reversed those gains, likely as President Draghi remained cautious on inflation and referenced trade war concerns. The euro failed to reclaim 1.2450 against the dollar and moved lower towards 1.23, while sterling-euro regained 1.12 after the rate met support around 1.1164.
Last night, Trump launched the tariffs on steel and aluminium that have prompted concerns of a trade war in recent days as the EU and China threaten retaliation; some countries may be exempt. The White House also announced that Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
This morning sees the main UK data of the week (09:30 GMT). Mixed production figures could see trading in either direction this morning, but gains in the yearly figures could see at least a modest move higher. Ultimately, the pound remains sensitive to Brexit headlines and sentiment, so this will remain the key driver, particularly as we near the EU Summit later in the month.
This afternoon is all about jobs data. Market attention will primarily be on the closely watched jobs report from the US. A strong Nonfarm Payrolls figure—the US is projected to have added 200K jobs to the economy in February—could strengthen the dollar in a knee-jerk reaction but may be at least partially off-set by softer wage growth figures. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to fall further from 4.1% to 4.0%, the lowest level since 2000, but on the flip side, a lower participation rate is also expected.
In Canada, Net Employment Change is forecast to pick up modestly after the previous month’s decline, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 5.9%. Signs of an improving labour market could strengthen the loonie.
Today's Economic Calendar
|09:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production YoY (Jan)||2.8%||1.4%|
|09:30||GBP||Industrial Production YoY (Jan)||1.8%||0.0%|
|09:30||GBP||Total Trade Balance (Jan)||£-4.896B|
|13:00||GBP||NISER GDP Estimate 3M (Feb)||0.3%||0.5%|
|13:30||USD||NonFarm Payrolls (Feb)||200K||200K|
|13:30||USD||Unemployment Rate (Feb)||4.0%||4.1%|
|13:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)||0.2%||0.3%|
|13:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)||2.8%||2.9%|
|13:30||CAD||Net Change in Employment (Feb)||20K||-88K|
|13:30||CAD||Unemployment Rate (Feb)||5.9%||5.9%|
|17:40||USD||Fed's Rosengren Speaks|
|17:45||USD||Fed's Evans Speaks|