US CPI, Fed Minutes to Drive Dollar

The dollar remained under pressure yesterday while the euro reacted to Nowotny's comments. US CPI and Fed minutes are to drive the dollar today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The dollar remained under pressure as risk sentiment improved on some easing of trade war concerns after positive comments from China’s President Xi. Equities gained. Euro-dollar rose towards 1.24 while sterling-dollar broke 1.42 in overnight trading, its highest levels since 27 March. Sterling-euro continued trading in the upper half of the 1.14-1.15 band, briefly breaking 1.15 for the first time since the Bank of England meeting last month.
 
The euro saw some volatility on comments from the ECB’s Nowotny, gaining as he said that asset purchases will end this year and rate hikes could start with the deposit rate. The common currency retreated as the ECB later said that Nowotny’s views were his own, not those of the Governing Council. The US Producer Price Index rose more than forecast to 2.7%, helping the dollar in the afternoon session.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1478 1.1538 1.1262 2.39%
GBP/USD 1.4205 1.4245 1.3888 2.51%
EUR/USD 1.2376 1.2477 1.2218 2.08%
GBP/AUD 1.8339 1.8509 1.7646 4.66%
GBP/NZD 1.9309 1.9644 1.9026 3.15%
GBP/CAD 1.7910 1.8417 1.7841 3.13%

Today's Market Highlights

The calendar picks up today with the UK’s main release of the week: production data(09:30 BST). A pick-up in production compared to the same period a year ago could see some sterling strength. A narrower trade deficit in February could also prove supportive, but in general the morning’s releases are unlikely to knock the pound out of familiar ranges unless there are any significant surprises.
 
Attention then turns to a speech from ECB President Draghi, followed by a Q&A with winners of the Generation €uro Students’ Award (12:00 BST). Any comments from Draghi on the economy or monetary policy could see euro movement, but he may provide little in the way of surprises.
 
In the afternoon, US data are projected to show a pick-up in both headline and core CPIreadings (13:30 BST). Signs of rising price pressures support the argument for raising interest rates and therefore could see some dollar strength this afternoon, although the Fed particularly watches PCE figures. Even if the dollar gains, it may be unable to shake recent ranges.  
 
This evening, investors will watch the Fed’s March meeting minutes (19:00 BST) for clues as to how hawkish the central bank is and whether four hikes this year could be in play, versus the three that the Fed has been projecting. Any signs that the Fed is becoming more hawkish could strengthen the dollar, while if investors’ expectations are disappointed, the dollar could weaken.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Industrial Production MoM (Feb) 0.4% 1.3%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (Feb) 0.2% 0.1%
09:30 GBP Industrial Production YoY (Feb) 2.9% 1.6%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production YoY (Feb) 3.3% 2.7%
09:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Feb) £-2.600B £-3.074B
12:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
13:30 USD CPI YoY (Mar) 2.4% 2.2%
13:30 USD Core CPI YoY (Mar) 2.1% 1.8%
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories (6 April) 0.220M -4.617M
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes

Caxton