Previous Day's Market Highlights
Sterling traded at familiar levels yesterday, above 1.13 against the euro and within the 1.35-1.36 band against the dollar. Euro-dollar held below 1.20 after breaking to a new low since January heading into yesterday’s session. Elsewhere, sterling fell below 1.80 against the Aussie overnight for the first time since mid-March and is trading at its lowest levels against the Canadian dollar since mid-February.
The highlight of the data calendar was an unexpected slowdown in Eurozone CPI, which found April headline inflation down to 1.2% from 1.3% in March and core inflation down to 0.7% from 1.0%. This add complexity to the policy normalisation timing debate.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
Attention today is primarily on this afternoon’s April jobs report from the US (13:30 BST). While the Nonfarm Payrolls figure is usually a market mover, the wage data has received increasing market attention in recent months as the Fed looks for signs up a pick-up in wage pressures. Today’s report could be mixed, with NonFarms forecast to pick up from last month’s softer-than-expected figure but wage growth to hold steady compared to a year prior and slow from the previous month.
However, barring a significantly disappointing release, today’s data are unlikely to change market expectations of a rate hike next month. And should the data surprise to the upside, this could increase speculation that the Fed may need to raise rates more quickly than previously expected. Therefore, the release may provide limited dollar direction unless there are any surprises.
There are several Fed speakers on the calendar but largely after the European close. Note that Monday is a Bank Holiday, so the Daily Report will return on Tuesday. It’s a fairly quiet calendar on Monday, but any headlines could prompt exacerbated movement. The main event next week is Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Market expectations fell from 90% to 20% last month after a spate of softer data, cautious comments from Governor Carney, and the slowest quarterly GDP print since Q4 2012.
Today's Economic Calendar
|13:30||USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)||192K||103K|
|13:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr)||0.2%||0.3%|
|13:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Apr)||2.7%||2.7%|
|14:00||EUR||German Buba President Weidmann Speaks|
|15:00||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (Apr)||60.2||59.8|
|17:00||USD||Fed's Dudley Speaks|
|20:00||USD||Fed's Williams Speaks|
|22:30||USD||Fed's Quarles Speaks|
|01:00||USD||Fed's Kaplan Speaks|
|01:00||USD||Fed's Bostic Speaks|
|01:00||USD||Fed's George Speaks|
|15:00||USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)||58.1||58.8|
|15:00||USD||Factory Orders MoM (Mar)||1.4%||1.2%|
|02:30||AUD||RBA Monetary Policy Statement|