UK GDP in focus this morning

A brief Sterling sell off came shortly after Midday yesterday amid rumours that PM Johnson would be delaying the general election.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

  • US weekly jobless claims printed slightly ahead of forecast, coming in at 209K versus 215K.
  • A brief Sterling sell off came shortly after Midday amid rumours that PM Johnson would be delaying the general election. GBP lost around 0.4% against it’s majors, however we did then see GBP repair these losses shortly after.
  • Trump tweets: “As your President, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar. I am not!”, reiterating the pressure put on US manufacturing firms suffering from price competition, signalling to the Fed to cut rates even further.
  • RICS House Price Index came in at -9% vs -1% previous, seeing a 0.2% fall in house prices month on month.
  • Yesterday evening, Matteo Salvini, the deputy Prime Minister of Italy called for a snap election, which has put serious doubt in the current coalition government.
Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.0841 1.1246 1.0792 4.04%
GBP/USD 1.2132 1.2578 1.2079 3.97%
EUR/USD 1.1186 1.1285 1.1026 2.30%
GBP/AUD 1.7808 1.8041 1.7560 2.67%
GBP/NZD 1.8684 1.8960 1.8278 3.60%
GBP/CAD 1.6043 1.6438 1.5959 2.91%

Today's Market Highlights

  • Chinese CPI figure came out this morning, coming in above forecast at 2.8% vs 2.7%.
  • This morning we have GDP numbers out of the UK, MoM forecast to come in at 0.1% and preliminary QoQ is set to be zero change (0%).
  • Manufacturing PMI figures (MoM) from the UK are also set to come out at 9:30am, a reading of -0.1% is forecast.
  • Canadian labour market data is due to be realised early in the afternoon, with employment change and unemployment rate being released.
  • Markets will keep a close eye on any further comments surrounding the US-China trade war, especially with China’s recent currency manipulation.
  • The RBA Monetary policy statement come out earlier this morning, explaining that it is reasonable to expect extended period of low interest rates. Also, that the weak AUD is currently stimulating the Australian economy.
  • Next week, eyes will be on top tier data releases out of the UK and the US, with retail sales and CPI figures being the main highlights.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
02:30 CNY CPI (YoY – Jul) 2.8% 2.7%
09:30 GBP GDP (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
09:30 GBP GDP (QoQ - Prelim) 0.0% 0.5%
09:30 GDP Manufaturing Production -0.1% 1.4%
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.5% 5.5%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment (Jul) 15.2k -2.2k