The day we've all been waiting for - UK Election day! Here's a graph to depict the GBP/USD rate movement since the UK Election was called.
Nobody really knows what is going to happen at the ballot box, or what this will do to markets. Caxton analyst Michael Brown has put together a timetable of what to look out for after the Polls close at 10pm. Our FX desks are open through the night, ready to trade when you are. Call 0207 201 0554.
- 10pm: Broadcasters release exit poll (conducted by Ipsos MORI). This will give us our first indication of how polling day has panned out. The poll can (& has been) wrong, but usually tends to give a pretty accurate indication of the election result
- 11pm: Houghton & Sunderland South and Newcastle upon Tyne Central race to become the first seat to declare in the UK, with both set to announce results around this time. These are both safe Labour seats, if there’s a significant swing to the Tories, or the Tories even win one of these seats, Boris is in for a VERY good night.
- 1am: Then, a bit of a lull as counts continue, until 1am when a host of key marginals will release results. These include Workington and Rutherglen & Hamilton West. The former is a key Tory target, with the latter an SNP target (from LAB)
- 1:30am: The count continues, with the result in Darlington set to give an indication of whether the Tories are breaking Labour’s ‘red wall’. Key bellwether Nuneaton, which tends to elect the same party as the election winner, also declares around this time
- 2am: The pace of results now begins to quicken, with key Tory target Wrexham (which heavily voted leave in 2016) due around this time. If the Tories don’t win here, it could be a very long night for them. Also due to declare are the Brexit Party target seat of Hartlepool, the Lib Dem target Putney, and Ken Clarke’s former constituency of Rushcliffe. The result in Swindon North will also be worth a look, with the winner here winning the general election every time since 1979
- 3am: Results will now start to come thick and fast. Tory target Bishop Auckland will declare around now, a seat which voted heavily to leave, but has never returned a Tory MP. Meanwhile, big-hitters Iain Duncan-Smith and Dominic Raab will find out their fates in marginal Chingford & Woodford Green and Esher and Walton. We will also find out whether Chuka Umunna has successfully competed in the Cities of London & Westminster as well as knowing whether Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson have won their seats in Islington North and East Dunbartonshire respectively. Also declaring around this time will be the ex-Tory Dominc Grieve’s Beaconsfield seat, as well as Sheffield Hallam, a major Lib Dem target
- 3:30am: Two key Labour targets – Hastings & Rye and Aberconwy declare around now. At this point in the 2017 election, over half of the seats had declared, meaning we will have a pretty clear indication of how the night is going by this point
- 4am: A host of key Labour-held marginals are due to declare, including Canterbury, Crewe & Nantwich, Cheltenham and Ipswich. These are the sort of seats that the Tories need to win in order to win a majority.
- 4:30am: The big one. Boris Johnson heads to his count in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where he’s defending a majority of around 5,000. He could conceivably lose his seat, with it having been very heavily targeted by Labour/Momentum activists. The ultra-marginal Kensington will also declare, where Labour are defending a majority of just 20
- 5am: Still awake? Good, because the Tory target seats of Ashfield, Dudley North, Stoke on Trent South and Bolsover will declare around now. The latter could see 49-year veteran MP Dennis Skinner lose his seat. Labour target Southampton Itchen and Lib Dem target Cheadle will also announce results.
- 5:30am: At this point, Environment Sec. Theresa Villiers will find out whether she has held onto her marginal seat of Chipping Barnet, while Lib Dem targets Finchley & Golders Green and Richmond Park will also declare
- 6am: Most of the results will now be in, with just a handful of seats in the South West still to declare. By this point, we will know the make-up of the new government, and the course that the country has chosen.