UK Data in Focus Ahead of BoE Meeting

UK data are in focus this morning following the latest Brexit headlines and ahead of Thursday's BoE meeting.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound rallied on Brexit headlines once again on Friday as markets reacted to reports from earlier this month that Chief EU negotiator Barnier is open to discussing “other backstops” on the Irish border issue. Sterling gains saw it test 1.30 against the dollar and climb towards 1.12 against the euro, before later paring gains.
 
The dollar later gained slightly on the August jobs report, which saw Average Earnings surprise to the upside. The positive data helped the dollar push back below 1.16 against the euro and towards 1.29 against the pound.  
 
It was a busy week for the Canadian dollar, which lost up to three cents against the pound over the course of the week. The loonie was driven lower by the latest NAFTA headlines but gained on comments from the Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Wilkins, who said that the Bank had debated removing a reference to a gradual pace of rate hikes at its latest meeting, where it kept interest rates on hold. Worsening risk sentiment on trade tensions put pressure on the Aussie and kiwi dollars.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1187 1.1241 1.0991 2.22%
GBP/USD 1.2902 1.3044 1.2666 2.90%
EUR/USD 1.1533 1.1734 1.1301 3.69%
GBP/AUD 1.8172 1.8224 1.7414 4.44%
GBP/NZD 1.9790 1.9847 1.9167 3.43%
GBP/CAD 1.7025 1.7117 1.6596 3.04%

Today's Market Highlights

Monday gets off to an unusually busy start, with a slew of UK data, including Manufacturing and Industrial Production, trade, and monthly GDP figures (09:30 BST). Overall softer figures could weigh on the pound, although monthly GDP could be a bright spot with growth forecast to have picked up pace. The final estimate of Q2 growth will be released on 28 September. 
 
Fed member Bostic will speak on the economic outlook this afternoon (13:00). Highlights later in the week include meetings of the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Neither bank is expected to announce any policy changes, so markets will be watching closely for any language shifts that could provide clues as to future policy change timing.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (Jul) 0.2% 0.4%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production YoY (Jul) 1.4% 1.5%
9:30am GBP Industrial Production MoM (Jul) 0.2% 0.4%
9:30am GBP Industrial Production YoY (Jul) 1.1% 1.1%
9:30am GBP Total Trade Balance (Jul) £-1.861B
9:30am GBP Goods Trade Blaance (Jul) £-11.750B £-11.383B
9:30am GBP GDP MoM (Jul) 0.2% 0.1%
1:00pm USD Fed's Bostic Speaks

Caxton