UK Current Account and GDP

Financial markets held a relatively subdued tone across the board yesterday. The greenback’s recent gains were eroded slightly as markets analysed Trump’s latest statements on fiscal stimulus. The currency is still around 1% higher since the week began. GBP touched intra-day highs of above 1.14 after the speech from Mark Carney & Theresa May hinted at a more conciliatory tone in future Brexit negotiations. Data was relatively thin on the ground yesterday and participants cling to the risk-off theme that has dominated the week.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Financial markets held a relatively subdued tone across the board yesterday. The greenback’s recent gains were eroded slightly as markets analysed Trump’s latest statements on fiscal stimulus. The currency is still around 1% higher since the week began. GBP touched intra-day highs of above 1.14 after the speech from Mark Carney & Theresa May hinted at a more conciliatory tone in future Brexit negotiations. Data was relatively thin on the ground yesterday and participants cling to the risk-off theme that has dominated the week.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1380 1.1417 1.0745 5.89%
GBP / USD 1.3421 1.3664 1.2777 6.49%
EUR / USD 1.1796 1.2093 1.1773 2.65%
GBP/AUD 1.7108 1.7050 1.6165 5.19%
GBP / NZD 1.8564 1.8742 1.7684 5.65%
GBP / CAD 1.6683 1.6728 1.5837 5.33%

Today's Market Highlights

Today sees a busy calendar of data releases as we round off the month. Released already this morning are German retail sales data (m/m), reading -0.4% against a forecast of 0.5%, and UK HPI data (m/m), reading as forecast at 0.2%.

Sterling data of note, released at 9:30AM, includes the UK Current Account, forecast -15.8B, and the release of final UK GDP for the second quarter of the year – forecast at 0.3%. Also of note in the morning session is the release of Eurozone CPI and Core CPI flash estimates at 10AM, forecast at 1.6% and 1.2% respectively.

The afternoon session begins with Canadian m/m GDP at 1:30PM, forecast at 0.1%, and m/m US Core PCE price index data, forecast at 0.2%. The afternoon session is completed with two speeches of note for Sterling, these coming from MPC Member Broadbent and Bank of England governor Carney – continued hawkish comments would likely drive further Sterling strength amid continuing expectations of a rate rise.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:00 EUR (Germ) Unemployment Change -5K -5K
09:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.7K 1.7K
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY) 1.4% 1.5%
15:45 GBP BOE’s Governor Carney Speech
16:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speech