Sterling seesaws

A mixed day for sterling saw initial weakness in the morning with comments from EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggesting that there had not been enough progress on Brexit talks, preventing them from progressing to trade talks. This news saw GBP fall around 1% against both the euro and US dollar during the morning.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

A mixed day for sterling saw initial weakness in the morning with comments from EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggesting that there had not been enough progress on Brexit talks, preventing them from progressing to trade talks. This news saw GBP fall around 1% against both the euro and US dollarduring the morning.

These losses were recovered in the afternoon session however after reports suggesting the EU being prepared to offer a 2-year transitional period to the UK. Sterling rallied around 1.5% off the day’s lows on this news, with the positive momentum continuing this morning.

Data released yesterday caused little surprise, with most figures being released as forecast. The US weekly unemployment claims were released better than forecast at 243K, however we saw little USD movement after this. However, euro traders will have noted comments from the ECB suggesting that they may begin to run down their bond-buying programme, commencing in January.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1239 1.1433 1.1047 3.38%
GBP / USD 1.3306 1.3664 1.3027 4.66%
EUR / USD 1.1838 1.2033 1.1669 3.03%
GBP/AUD 1.6983 1.7201 1.6425 4.51%
GBP / NZD 1.8636 1.8742 1.8177 3.01%
GBP / CAD 1.6584 1.6798 1.6007 4.71%

Today's Market Highlights

There is likely to be a quiet tone to markets this morning with very little in the way of Economic data being released in the European session. The one point of note is the Swiss PPI data (m/m) released at 0.5% against a forecast of 0.3%

Traders will be focused on the data released in US session this afternoon, with US CPI and Retail Sales figures being released. These are forecast at 0.6% and 1.7% respectively, with both being month on month figures. There are also speeches from FOMC members Evans and Kaplan to round off the afternoon session where markets will be looking for continued guidance that the Fed will hike rates in December.

Despite a lack of data concerning sterling today, markets will be digesting yesterday’s reports that the EU are prepared to offer a 2-year transitional period after Brexit, with support for the pound likely to be maintained.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
13:30 USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep) 1.7% -0.2%
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (Sep) 0.3% 0.2%
13:30 USD CPI YoY (Sep) 2.3% 1.9%
13:30 USD Core CPI YoY (Sep) 1.8% 1.7%
13:30 USD CPI MoM (Sep) 0.6% 0.4%
13:30 USD Core CPI MoM (Sep) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) 95.0 95.1
15:15 EUR ECB's Constancio Speaks
15:25 USD Fed's Evans Speaks
16:30 USD Fed's Kaplan Speaks
18:00 USD Fed's Powell Speaks