Sterling Rallies on Barnier Comments

Amidst an otherwise quiet day, the pound rallied on Barnier's Brexit comments. Politics and Eurozone and US data are in focus today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound rallied sharply yesterday afternoon on comments from Barnier that Brussels is willing to offer the UK a unique relationship—“such as there never has been with any other third country”. As no-deal Brexit fears have risen in recent months and meeting the preferred October deal deadline has seemed increasingly unlikely, this came as a welcome positive surprise to traders. However, exactly what form the UK’s future relationship with the EU will take remains to be seen.
 
This rally saw the pound trading around 1.30 against the dollar after an over 1% move higher and around 1.11 against the euro. Sterling-Aussie extended earlier gains on Aussie weakness to test 1.78 for the first time since 2 August.
 
Prior to the excitement, US Q2 GDP was revised higher rather than lower, to 4.2% from 4.1%, but had a muted impact on the dollar. The kiwi and Aussie both came under additional pressure overnight on disappointing capex and business confidence figures, respectively.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1133 1.1294 1.0991 2.68%
GBP/USD 1.3029 1.3126 1.2666 3.50%
EUR/USD 1.1702 1.1734 1.1301 3.69%
GBP/AUD 1.7875 1.7902 1.7284 3.45%
GBP/NZD 1.9589 1.9604 1.9077 2.69%
GBP/CAD 1.6830 1.7102 1.6596 2.96%

Today's Market Highlights

The pound has held yesterday’s gains and remains around 1.30 against the dollar and above 1.11 against the euro. Sterling will keep an eye on mid-level Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending to Individuals figures this morning, which may have a limited impact as markets digest the latest Brexit headlines.
 
The euro will eye the latest Consumer Confidence, Business Climate, Economic Sentiment Indicator, and German HICP releases. Softer readings may weigh on the single currency. In the afternoon, US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation and personal spending figures will be of note for the dollar, while the Canadian dollar could benefit from an acceleration in Q2 GDP.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Jul) £5.5B £5.4B
9:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals (Jul) 65.000K 65.619K
10:00am EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator (Aug) 112.0 112.1
10:00am EUR Business Climate (Aug) 1.28 1.29
10:00am EUR Consumer Confidence (Aug) -1.9 -1.9
1:00pm EUR German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices YoY (Aug) 2.0% 2.1%
1:30pm USD PCE - Price Index YoY (Jul) 2.2% 2.2%
1:30pm USD Core PCE - Price Index YoY (Jul) 2.0% 1.9%
1:30pm USD Personal Income MoM (Jul) 0.3% 0.4%
1:30pm USD Personal Spending (Jul) 0.4% 0.4%
1:30pm CAD GDP Annualised QoQ (Q2) 3.0% 1.3%
1:30pm CAD GDP MoM (Jun) 0.1% 0.5%
12:01am GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence (Aug) -10 -10

Caxton