Sterling Falls on Dovish BoE Hike; US Jobs in Focus

Sterling fell as the BoE raised rates but projected few additional hikes. Focus today is on October US jobs, with an expected Nonfarms rebound.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% as was widely expected by markets. However, the Bank struck a less hawkish tone than anticipated by some investors, indicating only two hikes over the coming years. As a result, the poundfell over 1% to one-week lows against the euro and one-month lows against the dollarafter an initial knee-jerk move higher.
 
The dollar fluctuated against the euro in the afternoon session as markets digested Trump’s tax plan, including a 20% corporate tax rate. Trump’s ability to get the measures passed remains a point of concern.
 
The Aussie dollar fell overnight after Retail Sales disappointed in September, holding flat instead of picking up as forecast. Sales were down 0.4% the previous month.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1203 1.1451 1.1069 3.34%
GBP / USD 1.3045 1.3339 1.3027 2.34%
EUR / USD 1.1646 1.1880 1.1574 2.58%
GBP/AUD 1.6998 1.7368 1.6675 3.99%
GBP / NZD 1.8841 1.9433 1.8367 5.49%
GBP / CAD 1.6735 1.7161 1.6350 4.73%

Today's Market Highlights

The dollar is in focus today with October NonFarm Payrolls out this afternoon (12:30 GMT). A rebound is expected following September’s hurricane driven-decline, and expectations were solidified after Wednesday’s ADP figure surprised to the upside.
 
A strong jobs report today would likely further cement anticipation of a December Fed rate hike, whilst another disappointing employment figure could be a point of greater concern, although that is not the base case scenario.  
 
Other US data are projected to be mixed, with Hourly Earnings expected to have slowed, the Unemployment Rate to remain steady at 4.2%, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIto have also registered a decline in October.
 
Canada releases trade and employment data (12:30 GMT). A lower monthly trade deficit and gains in net employment could offer the Canadian dollar some support, but with another rate hike unlikely until next year, the upside may be limited for the loonie.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI (Oct) 53.3 53.6
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 312K -33K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.2% 4.2%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct) 0.3% 0.5%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct) 2.7% 2.9%
12:30 USD Trade Balance (Sep) $-43.2B $-42.4B
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (Sep) $-3.00B $-3.41B
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.2% 6.2%
13:45 USD Markit Services PMI (oct) 55.7
16:15 USD Fed's Kashkari Speaks