Sterling Disappointed; BoC Considers Rate Hike

The pound initial ticked up on expectations that the day’s BoE speeches could provide further enlightenment over the direction of monetary policy. Traders were closely watching MPC Member Broadbent’s speech for clues to his current views given that Haldane is known to have recently taken a more hawkish stance.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound initial ticked up on expectations that the day’s BoE speeches could provide further enlightenment over the direction of monetary policy. Traders were closely watching MPC Member Broadbent’s speech for clues to his current views given that Haldane is known to have recently taken a more hawkish stance.
 
However, sterling fell across the board when MPC Member Broadbent did not discuss monetary policy and markets’ expectations were disappointed. Sterling-euro ultimately fell around 1.4% to below 1.1200 overnight, accelerating as it broke support to fall to a new low since 9 November. Sterling-dollar fell over 0.6% towards 1.2830.
 
Euro-dollar broke above 1.1450 to a new high since May 2016. The dollar came under pressure, particularly against the yen, on the release of Donald Trump Jr’s emails, while Fed speakers were less hawkish ahead of inflation data Friday. 

 

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1188 1.1469 1.1176 2.55%
GBP / USD 1.2818 1.3031 1.2589 3.39%
EUR / USD 1.1456 1.1490 1.1119 3.23%
GBP/AUD 1.6762 1.7107 1.6612 2.89%
GBP / NZD 1.7712 1.7881 1.7338 3.04%
GBP / CAD 1.6547 1.6996 1.6547 2.64%

Today's Market Highlights

Sterling fell this morning BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said in an interview for a local Scottish newspaper that he’s not yet ready to raise interest rates.
 
UK employment data (09:30 BST) will be closely watched this morning, particularly average earnings, as the Bank of England recently struck a more hawkish tone and markets are speculating as to the possible timing of a rate hike. Higher inflation and slower wage growth have had a negative impact on real wages, a point of concern for the Bank.
 
There are two key events in the afternoon. Fed Chair Yellen testifies on the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report (15:00 BST) and her comments will be closely watched for any additional clues as to the Fed’s thinking on the path of inflation and the odds of a third hike this year.
 
Also of note, markets have speculated that the Bank of Canada may announce a rate hike to 0.75% this afternoon (15:00 BST) after recently striking a more hawkish tone. This could strengthen the Canadian dollar, but the CAD would instead weaken if those expectations are disappointed and the BoC holds steady. CAD traders will also keep an eye on weekly Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 BST). 

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jun) 10.0K 7.3K
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M (May) 4.6% 4.6%
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Yr (May) 1.8% 2.1%
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Yr (May) 1.9% 1.7%
10:00 EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (May) 3.6% 1.4%
10:00 EUR Industrial Production s.a. MoM (May) 1.1% 0.5%
15:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
15:00 CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.50%
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Statement
15:30 CAD EIA Crude Oil Inventories -3.225M -6.299M
16:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
23:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Jul) 58.5