Retail Sales Wrap Up Busy UK Week

UK Retail Sales and US Fed speakers and production data are in focus today following yesterday's mixed employment report.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Yesterday saw a mixed UK employment report. Wage growth slowed, although by less than forecast, but continues to lag inflation. The Unemployment Rate held at 4.3%, the lowest levels since 1975. Sterling-euro briefly dipped below 1.1100, which it last hit on 20 October. Sterling-dollar fell back towards 1.3140 from earlier highs around 1.3200.
 
In the afternoon session, the dollar initially softened against the pound and euro around mixed CPI and Retail Sales figures but later recovered ground. Euro-dollar corrected lower after hitting a nearly five-week high above 1.1860, whilst sterling-dollar held above the reclaimed 1.3150.
 
The Aussie made gains overnight after employment data showed the Unemployment Rate had fallen to 5.4%, the lowest since 2013, and full-time jobs increased, although Employment Change slowed to 3.7K. As in the UK, wage growth remains a point of concern.  

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1166 1.1451 1.1083 3.21%
GBP / USD 1.3145 1.3321 1.3039 2.12%
EUR / USD 1.1771 1.1858 1.1553 2.57%
GBP/AUD 1.7331 1.7393 1.6675 4.13%
GBP / NZD 1.9182 1.9433 1.8437 5.13%
GBP / CAD 1.6789 1.7171 1.6383 4.59%

Today's Market Highlights

The busy UK calendar week wraps up today with October Retail Sales (09:30 GMT), which are forecast to pick up 0.1% from September but decline compared to the same period last year. Mixed figures may again leave the risk tilted to the downside.
 
Final Eurozone CPI is expected to confirm that headline inflation slowed to 1.4% in October from 1.5% in September. The euro could weaken if the core figure is revised lower.
 
This afternoon sees US Initial Jobless Claims, forecast to dip, as well as Import and Export Prices, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Industrial Productionfigures (13:30, 14:15 GMT).  A gain in Industrial Production could offer the dollar support.
 
The Bank of England is holding its Future Forum in Liverpool to discuss progress on making its work more accessible through education. The day’s speakers include BoE Governor Carney and MPC Members Broadbent and Cunliffe. 
 
The Fed’s Mester (14:10 GMT), BrainardKaplan, and Williams are amongst the afternoon’s speakers. Markets will look for any further clues as to the board’s thoughts on a December rate hike ahead of next month’s meeting.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Retail Sales MoM (Oct) 0.1% -0.8%
09:30 GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (Oct) 0.0% -0.7%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales YoY (Oct) -0.6% 1.2%
09:30 GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (Oct) -0.4% 1.6%
10:00 EUR Final CPI YoY (Oct) 1.4% 1.4%
10:00 EUR Final Core CPI YoY (Oct) 0.9% 1.1%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (10 Nov) 235K 239K
13:30 USD Import Price Index YoY (Oct) 2.5% 2.7%
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov) 25.0 27.9
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases $10.68B $9.85B
14:00 GBP BoE Governor Carney & MPC Members Cunliffe & Broadbent Speak
14:10 USD Fed's Mester Speaks
14:15 USD Industrial Production MoM (Oct) 0.5% 0.3%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov) 68 68
15:30 CAD BoC Review
17:30 USD Fed's Kaplan Speaks
20:00 EUR ECB's Constancio Speaks
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Oct) 57.5
21:45 USD Fed's Williams Speaks