RBA stands pat, focus turns to Services PMIs

With a quiet market yesterday, focus turned to the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision overnight where rates were held at 1.5%. Today, all eyes wll be on the Services PMI figures released from the Eurozone, UK and USA.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Monday’s UK Construction PMI came out better than expected at 52.5 against a forecast of 52.0. Although construction is the UK's third largest economic sector, economists were looking to the PMI for an early steer on the condition of the economy this quarter.
 
Eurozone Producers Price Index posted negative at 2.0% against a forecast of 2.4% year on year and USD Factory Orders also posted a negative at -0.8% against a forecast of -0.4%.

Sterling strength from the construction PMI was short lived as news broke that the EU Withdrawal Bill returns to the commons on June 12. What has caught commentators and markets by surprise is that only one day has been granted to debate the 15 amendments and +- 200 concessions made by the government during the Bill's passage. News broke yesterday mid-afternoon, at the time the pound was clearly the worst performing major currency. 
 
Meanwhile, MPC member Silvana Tenreyro has confirmed the UK can afford to leave interest rates on hold because it will soon have a much clearer picture of the underlying strength of domestic demand.
 
As a result of the above, GBP/EUR depreciated 0.5% across the day, trading at 1.1384. GBP/USD also depreciated by 0.36% and could be seen trading as low as 1.3305

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1386 1.1478 1.1302 1.53%
GBP/USD 1.3328 1.3619 1.3204 3.05%
EUR/USD 1.1693 1.1996 1.1510 4.05%
GBP/AUD 1.7420 1.8241 1.7518 3.96%
GBP/NZD 1.8928 1.9702 1.8927 3.93%
GBP/CAD 1.7220 1.7567 1.7055 2.91%

Today's Market Highlights

A busier day for data today kicks off with the release of Services PMI figures from the constituent countries of the Eurozone. As the largest economy, Germany’s individual figure will be closely watched (forecast 52.1) before the release of the Final Services PMIfor the Eurozone on the whole at 9AM, forecast at 53.9. Following this, the UK Services PMI will be released at 9:30AM. This is the most important PMI figure for the UK economy, with the services sector comprising approximately 80% of UK GDP. The figure for this month is expected to print 52.9, a slight increase on the 52.8 reading last month.
 
The afternoon session begins with the release of Canadian Labour Productivity data for the first quarter of 2018. This is expected to show an increase of 0.3% on the previous quarter. The day is completed with the release of the US ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, forecast to show continued expansion with a print of 57.9, compared to the reading of 56.8 in April.  

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
07:55 EUR Markit PMI Composite (May) 53.1 53.1
07:55 EUR Markit Services PMI (May) 52.1 52.1
08:00 EUR Markit Services PMI (May) 53.9 53.9
08:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite (May) 54.1 54.1
08:30 GBP Markit Services PMI (May) 53.0 52.8
09:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.1%
09:00 EUR Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 1.7% 0.8%
10:00 GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speech
13:45 USD Markit Services PMI (May) 55.7 55.7
13:45 USD Markit PMI Composite (May) 54.8 55.7

Caxton