New GDP model released by ONS

If you're not aware, the way the Office of National Statistics publishes GDP estimates will change from next month. This does not affect the final estimate of Q1 GDP, out next Friday (29 June).

Instead of having three estimates of quarterly GDP, as in the current system, this will be reduced to two releases. We will also get a monthly GDP estimate.

The first estimate of monthly GDP for May will be released in July. The first estimate of Q2 GDP will be released in August. (See table below for first six months)

The first quarterly estimate will now come approximately 40 days (two weeks later) after the end of the quarter, so that the quality of the first estimate can be improved (data content essentially between that of the current system’s first and second estimates). The second/final estimate will come approximately 85 days after the end of the quarter.

The monthly releases will provide monthly growth rates but will focus on three-month growth rates as the headline indicator. When the estimates of the second and third months of a quarter are published, the previous month(s) in that quarter will be revised as well.

Timetable of releases for the first six months of the publication model

 

Calendar month

Monthly releases

Quarterly releases

July

Tuesday 10th: Monthly GDP/ STEI (for May)

 

August

Friday 10th: Monthly GDP/STEI

Friday 10th: First quarterly GDP estimate

 

(for June)

(for Quarter 2)

September

Monday 10th: Monthly GDP/STEI (for July)

Friday 28th: Quarterly National Accounts

 

 

(for Quarter 2)

October

Wednesday 10th: Monthly GDP/STEI

 

 

(for August)

 

November

Friday 9th: Monthly GDP/STEI

Friday 9th: First quarterly GDP estimate (for Quarter 3)

 

(for September)

 

December

Monday 10th: Monthly GDP/ STEI (for October)

Friday 21st: Quarterly National Accounts (for Quarter 3)

Source: Office for National Statistics

 

For further details:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/introducinganewpublicationmodelforgdp/2018-04-27


Caxton