Morning Report: ECB, EUR in Focus

The Bank of Canada increased interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00%, taking some investors by surprise as the consensus had been for the bank to keep interest rates on hold. As a result, the Canadian dollar jumped around 2% against the pound, pushing the rate to below 1.5900, its lowest levels since mid-January.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling-Aussie followed lower, but the pound held gains against the dollar and euro, making further headway above 1.3000 and 1.0900, respectively. US data surprised to the downside as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose less than forecast. This followed a narrower trade deficit than projected.
 
Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s Vice Chairman, announced that he would be resigning 13 October ahead of his term expiration in 2018 due to personal reasons. 
 
Australian trade data overnight disappointed expectations, which weighed on the Aussie

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.0932 1.1102 1.0745 3.22%
GBP / USD 1.3039 1.3054 1.2777 2.05%
EUR / USD 1.1928 1.2070 1.1662 3.38%
GBP/AUD 1.6329 1.6570 1.6165 2.44%
GBP / NZD 1.8162 1.8169 1.7522 3.56%
GBP / CAD 1.5934 1.6567 1.5849 4.33%

Today's Market Highlights

Attention today is primarily on the ECB. It is expected to keep interest rates and its QEprogramme on hold. Key will be guidance given on the euro’s strength and on the timing of QE tapering. The rate decisions will be announced at 12:45 BST, followed by a press conference with ECB President Draghi from 13:30 BST, which often sees euro volatility as investors digest Draghi’s comments.
 
The euro would likely strengthen if Draghi doesn’t express caution on the single currency’s strength, if he strikes a relatively upbeat view on economic growth and 
reflationarypressures, or if he acknowledges discussion of or provides direct signalling on the winding down of QE. If Draghi is more cautious than expected, the euro may instead weaken.
 
The Canadian dollar will be in focus again this afternoon with PMI and US crude inventories data out (15:00, 16:00 BST).