Previous Day's Market Highlights
Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9%, the fastest pace since 2013. Core inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. According to the June ZEW Survey, Economic Sentiment dipped in Germany but rose in the Eurozone.
US Producer Price Index data, an indicator of inflation, came in above expectations, briefly strengthening the dollar.
The Canadian dollar lost some of the gains made against the pound but remains relatively strong. The rate regained 1.6800 but struggled to hold gains above 1.6900.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
|GBP / EUR||1.1396||1.1760||1.1277||4.11%|
|GBP / USD||1.2783||1.3048||1.2635||3.17%|
|EUR / USD||1.1217||1.1283||1.0976||2.72%|
|GBP / NZD||1.7664||1.8899||1.7497||7.42%|
|GBP / CAD||1.6893||1.7822||1.6796||5.76%|
Today's Market Highlights
UK data this morning (09:30 BST) will be closely watched ahead of tomorrow’s BoE interest rate decision. Wage growth will be key after the rate of inflation rose to 2.9% in May. Inflation has outpaced wage growth, meaning that real wages have fallen.
The morning continues with Eurozone Industrial Production and Employment Change (10:00 BST).
In the afternoon, US Retail Sales and CPI could pose a risk to the dollar, with both expected to have slowed in May (13:30 BST). Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are expected to have fallen again, after unexpectedly rising last week.
The main event of the day is this evening’s Fed rate decision. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25%. This move has been largely priced in, so attention will largely be on forward guidance for later this year. Dollar strength will depend in large part on the tone of any guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 99.6% chance of a hike.
Overnight, New Zealand releases Q1 GDP and Australian releases employment data.
Today's Economic Calendar
|09:30||GBP||Claimant Count Change (May)||10.0K||19.4K|
|09:30||GBP||ILO Unemployment Rate 3M (Apr)||4.6%||4.6%|
|09:30||GBP||Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Yr (Apr)||2.4%||2.4%|
|09:30||GBP||Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Yr (Apr)||2.0%||2.1%|
|10:00||EUR||Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (Apr)||1.3%||1.9%|
|10:00||EUR||Industrial Production s.a. MoM (Apr)||0.5%||-0.1%|
|10:00||EUR||Employment Change QoQ (Q1)||0.3%||0.3%|
|13:30||USD||Retail Sales MoM (May)||0.1%||0.4%|
|13:30||USD||Core Retail Sales MoM (May)||0.2%||0.3%|
|13:30||USD||CPI YoY (May)||2.0%||2.2%|
|13:30||USD||Core CPI YoY (May)||1.9%||1.9%|
|13:30||USD||CPI MoM (May)||0.0%||0.2%|
|13:30||USD||Core CPI MoM (May)||0.2%||0.1%|
|15:30||USD||EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Jun 9)||-2.955M||3.295M|
|19:00||USD||Fed Interest Rate Decision||1.25%||1.00%|
|19:00||USD||Fed's Monetary Policy Statement|
|19:30||USD||FOMC Press Conference|
|23:45||NZD||GDP QoQ (Q1)||0.7%||0.4%|
|23:45||NZD||GDP YoY (Q1)||2.7%||2.7%|
|02:30||AUD||Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun)||4%|
|02:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate s.a. (May)||5.7%||5.7%|
|02:30||AUD||Employment Change s.a. (May)||10.0K||37.4K|