Italy’s political saga hits the euro

Sterling rose against the euro until early afternoon, as political uncertainty throughout Italy weighs on the currency.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Yesterday saw no Macroeconomic data from the UK and very limited across the majors, into the evening we had the following.

  • The monthly budget statement for July out from the US was released at 19:00. The forecasted print at -$112.5B was missed to the downside at -$120B
  • We also had the New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM) for July at 23:45, forecasts were set for an increase to 0.4% from a previous of -0.7%, however the release was much more positive at 1.1%
Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.0768 1.1246 1.0736 4.53%
GBP/USD 1.2055 1.2578 1.2015 4.48%
EUR/USD 1.1195 1.1285 1.0736 1.91%
GBP/AUD 1.7830 1.8041 1.7560 2.67%
GBP/NZD 1.8692 1.8960 1.8278 3.60%
GBP/CAD 1.5972 1.6438 1.5872 3.44%

Today's Market Highlights

A much busier calendar today, below are the key highlights to look out for.

  • UK Labour market data is released at 09:30 and begins with the ILO unemployment rate at 09:30, expected to remain at 3.8% for the 3 months leading to June.
  • UK Average Earnings including and excluding bonus for June, at 3.7% and 3.8% respectively.
  • Lastly from the UK, the claimant count change for July is expected at 22.8k versus a previous reading of 38.0k. If the forecast of 22.8k is produced, this will be the lowest (best) reading since January’s count of 14.2k.
  • At 10:00 the ZEW Economic sentiment survey (Aug) from Germany is released. The survey itself is used as a gauge for the medium-term economic future of Germany. Today’s reading is expected at -30.00; of the previous 9 readings, 8 have been in negative territory.
  • Into the afternoon session, US CPI numbers are released for July, with the MoM expected at 0.2% and YoY at 2.1% and both excluding the traditionally volatile prices of food and energy.
  • US CPI with no exclusions is forecasted at 1.7%, versus a previous reading of 1.6%.
  • To finish off today’s trading, Japanese machinery orders for June at predicted at -0.6% and -1.3% for the YoY and MoM respectively.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
9:30am GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jun) 3.8% 3.8%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (Jun) 3.8% 3.6%
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (Jul) 22.8k 38.0k
10:00am EUR German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Aug) - 30.0 -24.5
1:30pm USD Consumer Price Index (Jul) 1.7% 1.6%
1:30pm USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (Jul) 2.1% 2.1%
12:50am (Wed) JPY Machinery Orders (Jun)(MoM) -1.3% -7.8%
12:50am (Wed) JPY Machinery Orders (Jun)(YoY) -0.6% -3.7%