GDP to Drive Pound, Rate Hike Expectations

The pound fell across the board yesterday as it corrected gains made heading into the start of the week and as pressures came back into focus in light of a quiet calendar day, namely slightly greater rate hike uncertainties and ongoing political risk amidst Brexit negotiations.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound fell across the board yesterday as it corrected gains made heading into the start of the week and as pressures came back into focus in light of a quiet calendar day, namely slightly greater rate hike uncertainties and ongoing political risk amidst Brexit negotiations.
 
Euro-dollar traded sideways ahead of upcoming ECB and Fed meetings. The dollar was largely unchanged as preliminary Markit PMIs surprised to the upside.
 
The Aussie fell over 0.8% against the pound after CPI underwhelmed, prompting speculation that the RBA would not take a more hawkish tone. Sterling-Aussie is now trading around its highest levels since 1 October.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1154 1.1433 1.1069 3.18%
GBP / USD 1.3119 1.3456 1.3027 3.19%
EUR / USD 1.1761 1.1880 1.1669 1.78%
GBP/AUD 1.6995 1.7201 1.6675 3.06%
GBP / NZD 1.9011 1.9089 1.8367 3.78%
GBP / CAD 1.6637 1.6798 1.6350 2.67%

Today's Market Highlights

The UK’s main release of the week is this morning’s preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP(09:30 BST). Any sign that economic growth remained subdued or slowed further would likely weigh further on the pound and could see an additional pull back in market expectations of a potential rate hike week.
 
Mixed inflation and Retail Sales data, combined with dovish MPC comments, have added to uncertainty over whether the BoE will indeed move on rates this month to reverse last year’s cut to 0.25%. That said, markets have been pricing in well above a 50% chance that the Bank will do so, around 75%.
 
In the afternoon, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.0% after raising them at the previous two meetings. Data out last week showed that CPI rose more slowly than expected, while Retail Sales unexpectedly declined month on month. Canadian dollar traders will also keep an eye on weekly Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 BST).

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP GDP QoQ (Q3) 0.3% 0.3%
09:30 GBP Preliminary GDP YoY (Q3) 1.4% 1.5%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (Sep) 1.0% 2.0%
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (Sep) 0.5% 0.5%
14:00 USD Housing Price Index MoM (Aug) 0.4% 0.2%
15:00 USD New Home Sales MoM (Sep) 0.555M 0.555M
15:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 1.0% 1.0%
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
15:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories (20 Oct) -2.500M -5.731M
16:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
22:45 NZD Trade Balance MoM (Sep) $-900M $-1,235M
22:45 NZD Trade Balance YoY (Sep) $-2.706B $-3.200B