GBP/USD Holds Near Six-Week Highs

Despite dollar gains, GBP/USD has held above 1.30 to trade at nearly six-week highs. Geopolitical and trade headlines remain key drivers.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The dollar firmed against both the pound and the euro on Friday amidst reports onthe latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports. Sterling-dollar gave up 1.31 and euro-dollar fell below 1.17. The dollar briefly weakened around the release of sub-forecast Retails Sales before continuing to strengthen. Above-forecast Industrial Production broadly supported afternoon gains.
 
Neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank announced any major policy changes last Thursday, as had been widely expected. Sterling remained driven by Brexit headlines, heading higher on the positive tone to the latest reported comments from Barnier. This helped sterling-dollar hit six-week highs.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1248 1.1266 1.0991 2.44%
GBP/USD 1.3080 1.3144 1.2730 3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1629 1.1734 1.1394 2.90%
GBP/AUD 1.8279 1.8377 1.7414 5.24%
GBP/NZD 1.9954 2.0031 1.9167 4.31%
GBP/CAD 1.7052 1.7190 1.6596 3.46%

Today's Market Highlights

Final Eurozone CPI figures are forecast to confirm that inflation slowed to 2.0% in August. In the afternoon, markets will keep an eye on a softer NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which could see some dollar weakness. Overall, a lighter calendar may keep exchange rates around familiar levels. The latest trade and geopolitical headlines will remain key currency drivers this week.
 
Overnight, softer housing data could weigh on the Aussie, while markets will also keep an eye out for any further less-dovish indicators in the RBA’s meeting minutes.
 
Later in the week, markets will keep a close eye on any headlines from this week’s meeting of EU leaders in Salzburg. ECB President Draghi is to speak twice, first at the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority event and second at ane vent hosted by the Jacques Delors Institute. Data highlights include the UK’s latest inflation and Retail Sales figures, New Zealand’s Q2 GDP, US housing data, and Canadian CPI.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00am EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
10:00am EUR CPI YoY (Aug) 2.0% 2.0%
10:00am EUR Core CPI YoY (Aug) 1.0% 1.0%
1:30pm USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) 23.0 25.6
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases $4.35B $11.55B
2:00pm EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
2:30am AUD House Price Index QoQ (Q2) -0.7% -0.7%
2:30am AUD House Price Index YoY (Q2) -0.7% 2.0%
2:30am AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Caxton