GBPUSD Holds Above 1.30

Sterling-dollar ended the month above 1.30. The year-to-date high of 1.3048 remains a resistance level. Sterling-euro again tested 1.1400. Euro-dollar eased back towards 1.1400 after meeting resistance around 1.1446.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling-dollar ended the month above 1.30. The year-to-date high of 1.3048 remains a resistance level. Sterling-euro again tested 1.1400. Euro-dollar eased back towards 1.1400 after meeting resistance around 1.1446.
 
Despite the increase in political uncertainty last month after the election resulted in a hung parliament, the pound received support at the end of the month from a more hawkish BoE. The euro also strengthened last week on hawkish central bank comments.
 
The dollar has been under pressure on softer data, particularly inflation, and concerns that President Trump would have trouble passing key tax measures.
 
Data Friday confirmed that the UK’s economy grew 0.2% in Q1 and 2.0% when compared to the same period a year prior. Eurozone CPI slowed less than forecast to 1.3% in June from 1.4%, while Core CPI picked up to 1.2% from 1.0%, adding to support for the euro.
 
US Personal Consumption Expenditures slowed more than expected, providing the dollarwith little support as the Fed watches for signals that prices are picking up. The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment both surprised to the upside. Monthly Canadian GDP slowed to 0.2% as expected and had limited impact on the sterling-loonie rate.  

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1396 1.1572 1.1261 2.69%
GBP / USD 1.3005 1.3031 1.2589 3.39%
EUR / USD 1.1411 1.1446 1.1119 2.86%
GBP/AUD 1.6948 1.7335 1.6612 4.17%
GBP / NZD 1.7788 1.8131 1.7338 4.37%
GBP / CAD 1.6887 1.7536 1.6721 4.64%

Today's Market Highlights

The UK releases the first of three PMI figures this morning. Manufacturing PMI (09:30 BST) is expected to show a slowdown, if hold above the key 50 level indicating industry expansion, which may weigh on the pound, particularly if the index slows more than expected. Conversely, the pound may strengthen if the release surprises to the upside.
 
BoE Governor Carney gives an FSB update (13:30 BST) and MPC Member Haldanegives the closing remarks at the BoE’s research conference (18:30 BST). Both recently struck a more hawkish tone.
 
The US also releases manufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 BST) is forecast to pick up, which may support the dollar this afternoon.
 
Overnight, the RBA is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. 

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
24hr CAD Canada Day (obs)
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 56.5 56.7
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (May) 9.2% 9.3%
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 52.1 52.1
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 55.2 54.9
18:30 GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
23:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence QoQ (Q2) 17%
02:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. MoM (May) 0.2% 1.0%
05:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%