Previous Day's Market Highlights
The dollar made further gains following last week’s Fed rate hike and positive economic data. This pushed sterling-dollar to 1.30 for the first time since 12 September; the rate hit support and recovered around half a cent. Euro-dollar dropped below 1.1580 but later recovered 1.16. Renewed Brexit concerns and mixed final GDP estimates—unchanged quarterly growth at 0.4% and slightly lower annual growth at 1.2%--also put pressure on the pound.
Elsewhere, sterling continued to trade within the 1.12-1.13 band against the euro, tested 1.80 against the Aussie, and fell below 1.70 against the kiwi and 1.69 against the Canadian dollar. As markets opened on Sunday evening, the Canadian dollar gained on news that the US and Canada had reached a new NAFTA deal. This saw sterling-CAD back below 1.68 to its lowest levels since 29 August. The Mexican peso also strengthened on the new NAFTA deal.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
As we kick off the new month, UK data will continue to steal some of the spotlight from Brexit headlines, at least this morning (09:30 BST). Manufacturing PMI is forecast to have slipped to 52.5, which would be its third consecutive softer reading. While a reading above 50 is consistent with industry expansion, the index has fallen almost every month since November, when it peaked at 58.2. A lower reading here could weaken the pound.
Manufacturing PMI releases continue in the afternoon session, with the latest figures from Canada and the US. Softer readings in both Canada and the US could equate to some currency weakness, but at least on the US dollar side this may be partially off-set if the index holds above 60 as forecast—well clear of the key 50 mark. Markets will also keep an eye on any headlines on US-China trade, on Italy’s budget, or from the UK’s Conservative party conference.
Looking further ahead, PMI releases continue with the UK’s Construction index out tomorrow and Services index out Wednesday, alongside Services figures from the Eurozone and the US as well. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Wednesday and on Friday the US releases its September jobs report, including NonFarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings figures. Later in the month, attention will be increasingly on Brexit as the EU summit nears and EU leaders discuss Brexit progress made thus far. October had been previously touted as the preferred deal deadline but now most hopes are for a deal to be reached at an additional November summit.
Today's Economic Calendar
|9:30am||GBP||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)||52.5||52.8|
|9:30am||GBP||Mortgage Approvals (Aug)||64.500K||64.768K|
|10:00am||EUR||Unemployment Rate (Aug)||8.1%||8.2%|
|2:00pm||USD||Fed's Bostic Speaks|
|2:30pm||CAD||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)||56.6||56.8|
|2:45pm||USD||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)||55.4||55.6|
|3:00pm||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)||60.3||61.3|
|5:15pm||USD||Fed's Rosengren Speaks|
|6:00pm||CAD||BoC's Lane Speaks|
|10:00pm||NZD||NZIER Business Confidence QoQ (Q3)||-20%|
|5:30am||AUD||RBA Interest Rate Decision||1.5%||1.5%|
|5:30am||AUD||RBA Rate Statement|