GBP/USD Hits New Seven-Month Low

As the pound and dollar hit new lows, Eurozone data, final US GDP, and the EU Summit are in focus today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Bank of England Governor Carney discussed risks to the economy during a press conference on the Financial Stability Report. This contributed to pressure on the pound during the day’s session which, combined with a continued bid tone for the dollar, saw sterling-dollar head lower towards year-to-date lows, erasing gains made after last week’s BoE meeting.  
 
Euro-dollar also moved lower as the dollar gained and the euro remained under pressure on political concerns, falling back below 1.16 to one-week lows. Sterling-euro was little changed in the lower half of the 1.13-1.14 band.
 
The pound also pulled back against the commodity currencies. It briefly gained against the Canadian dollar after the European close as BoC Governor Poloz made cautious comments that reduced expectations of a rate hike, but the loonie quickly reversed those losses. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and its statement was neutral to slightly dovish.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1334 1.1497 1.1314 1.59%
GBP/USD 1.3078 1.3473 1.3067 3.01%
EUR/USD 1.1540 1.1853 1.1510 2.89%
GBP/AUD 1.7826 1.7981 1.7395 3.26%
GBP/NZD 1.9331 1.9415 1.8905 2.63%
GBP/CAD 1.7443 1.7791 1.7055 4.14%

Today's Market Highlights

Sterling-dollar broke below 1.31 this morning to hit new lows since November 2017. The next support level is around 1.3060.
 
Softer data, including this morning’s Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (10:00 BST) and this afternoon’s final preliminary German CPI figures (by 13:00), could weigh on the euro. The final estimate of Q1 US GDP (13:30) is forecast to be unrevised at 2.2%. This may have a limited impact on the dollar barring any surprises.
 
Migration and Brexit are amongst the issues to be discussed at the EU Summit starting today. If most of the focus is on migration, there may be limited sterling impact, but Brexit discussions pose a risk.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00am EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator (Jun) 112.0 112.5
10:00am EUR Business Climate (Jun) 1.40 1.45
10:00am EUR Services Sentiment (Jun) 14.2 14.3
1:00pm EUR German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices YoY (Jun) 2.1% 2.2%
1:30pm USD Initial Jobless Claims (15 Jun) 220K 218K
1:30pm USD GDP Annualised (Q1) 2.2% 2.2%
2:30pm GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
3:45pm USD Fed's Bullard Speaks
5:00pm USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks
12:01am GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence (Jun) -7 -7

Caxton