GBP/EUR Holds 1.14

As the dollar remained relatively strong, GBP/EUR has held above 1.14. Canadian Retail Sales and CPI are in focus today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound had benefited heading into yesterday’s session on overnight reports that the UK would seek to stay in the customs union after 2021, but the support was short lived as the government later denied the reports. Sterling-dollar fell from overnight highs above 1.3550 to hover around 1.35. Euro-dollar fell back below 1.18 but held above the previous day’s lows. Sterling-euro continued to trade above 1.14.
 
The dollar remained relatively bid. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly jumped to 34.4 from 23.2, having been forecast to fall. This marked the survey’s highest levels in a year. While weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected, they remained well below the 300K level consistent with a strengthening labour market.
 
Elsewhere, Brent oil prices hit $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014. The Trump administration’s decision to renew sanctions on Iran has supported oil prices given production disruption concerns.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1438 1.1520 1.1302 1.89%
GBP/USD 1.3516 1.4088 1.3451 4.52%
EUR/USD 1.1816 1.2353 1.1763 4.78%
GBP/AUD 1.7966 1.8476 1.7909 3.07%
GBP/NZD 1.9575 1.9755 1.9247 2.57%
GBP/CAD 1.7311 1.7985 1.7219 4.26%

Today's Market Highlights

This morning, the Eurozone releases March Trade Balance figures (10:00 BST), which may have limited market impact. In the afternoon, Canada provides the main data of the day. Headline Retail Sales are forecast to soften with core sales picking up pace. CPI is expected to be little changed year-on-year, holding steady at 2.3%. The BoC aims to maintain inflation around 2% as the midpoint of a 1-3% target range.    
 
This is followed by speeches from Fed members Kaplan and Brainard. Brainard is speaking on “Community Reinvestment Act Modernization”, so her comments may have limited dollar impact unless there are any discussions of monetary policy.
 
Highlights next week include UK CPI and the second estimate of the UK’s Q1 GDP, which will be closely watched for any revisions higher—initial estimates found that the economy had grown at its slowest pace since 2012. The Fed and the ECB both release monetary policy meeting accounts.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00 EUR Trade Balance s.a. (Mar) €20.7B €21.0B
10:00 EUR Trade Balance n.s.a. (Mar) €27.9B €18.9B
13:30 CAD Retail Sales MoM (Mar) 0.3% 0.4%
13:30 CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (Mar) 0.5% 0.0%
13:30 CAD CPI YoY (Apr) 2.3% 2.3%
13:30 CAD BoC Core CPI YoY (Apr) 1.4% 1.4%
14:15 USD Fed's Kaplan Speaks
14:15 USD Fed's Brainard Speaks

Caxton