GBP remains high thanks to Brexit optimism

GBP remained broadly supported by recent Brexit deal optimism, while the USD weakened on CPI data. Today's quiet calendar leaves Brexit in focus.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The dollar fell on softer-than-expected CPI data, which saw euro-dollar test 1.16 and sterling-dollar make gains above 1.32. Sterling-euro continued to trade above 1.14. Elsewhere, sterling pulled back from earlier highs against the Aussie and kiwi dollars and traded relatively sideways against the Canadian dollar. Recent Brexit optimism has seen sterling at its highest levels against the kiwi and Aussie dollars since the EU Referendum in 2016.
 
The Aussie had a limited reaction to sub-forecast Home Loans data overnight.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1423 1.1463 1.1112 3.06%
GBP/USD 1.3241 1.3298 1.2922 2.83%
EUR/USD 1.1591 1.1815 1.1436 3.21%
GBP/AUD 1.8608 1.8735 1.7937 4.26%
GBP/NZD 2.0331 2.0481 1.9554 4.53%
GBP/CAD 1.7226 1.7286 1.6598 3.98%

Today's Market Highlights

It’s a quieter calendar today, leaving attention primarily on Brexit headlines as the pound remains supported this morning, rising to a three-week high against the dollar. Fed member Bostic is to speak on economics and public policy this afternoon and the US releases Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
 
As we head into next week, markets will closely watch the latest Brexit headlines following this week’s reports that the EU and the UK could be nearing a deal. This has potentially put next week’s EU Summit back in play for a deal. Should this optimism be sustained and result in a deal, the pound would likely rally, while the disappointment of a deal remaining elusive could send the pound lower and shift expectations for a deal back to November.   
 
Data highlights include US Retail Sales and New Zealand CPI on Monday; UK employment data on Tuesday; UK CPI and final Eurozone CPI on Wednesday; Aussie employment data and UK Retail Sales on Thursday; and China’s GDP and Canada’s Retail Sales and CPI on Friday. Central bank meeting minutes are expected from the RBA on Tuesday and the Fed on Wednesday.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00am EUR Industrial Production s.a. MoM (Aug) 0.4% -0.8%
2:30pm USD Fed's Evans Speaks
3:00pm USD Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) 100.4 100.1
5:30pm USD Fed's Bostic Speaks

Caxton