Previous Day's Market Highlights
Currency ranges were largely familiar on Friday. Sterling-euro held above 1.15 and sterling-dollar above 1.42, although both ended the day a touch softer. Euro-dollarcontinued to trade in the 1.23-1.24 band. Despite some fluctuations, sterling edged higher against the commodity currencies as well, hitting one-week highs against the New Zealand dollar.
The data calendar ended the week on a quieter note—though it was really a quieter week overall—with an above-forecast trade surplus figure for the Eurozone and a dip back below 100 to February levels in the US’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Rising geopolitical tensions remained in focus.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
The week’s calendar kicks off with this afternoon’s March Retail Sales release from the US (13:30 BST). A pick-up in the figures could see a stronger dollar as investors watch for signs that the economy is on track for the Fed to raise interest rates a further two—if not three—times this year.
Fed member Bostic, who has supported raising rates three times this year, speaks on the economy this evening (17:15 BST). As his position on rates this year is already known, the speech may have limited impact unless it contains any surprising shifts.
Overnight, there are a couple of items of interest. First, the Reserve Bank of Australiareleases its latest meeting minutes. The RBA has kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% as other central banks begin to raise rates; US interest rates are now higher at a target range of 1.5-1.75%. Second, China releases a slew of data, including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures.
It’s a quiet calendar day for the UK, which means that price action in the sterling rates will likely be determined by news elsewhere or any surprise headlines. Looking ahead, it’s a busier week for the pound, with labour market data out tomorrow, inflation on Wednesday, and Retail Sales on Thursday. Positive figures could strengthen the pound, particularly on a pick-up in wage growth, and support expectations for a BoE rate hike. However, as a May rate hike has been largely priced in by markets, there may be limited additional upside potential.
Today's Economic Calendar
|13:30||USD||Retail Sales MoM (Mar)||0.4%||-0.1%|
|13:30||USD||Core Retail Sales MoM (Mar)||0.2%||0.2%|
|18:15||USD||Fed's Bostic Speaks|
|02:30||AUD||RBA Meeting Minutes|
|03:00||CNY||GDP YoY (Q1)||6.7%||6.8%|
|03:00||CNY||GDP QoQ (Q1)||1.5%||1.6%|
|03:00||CNY||NBS Press Conference|
|03:00||CNY||Retail Sales YoY (Feb)||9.9%||9.7%|