GBP Awaits Key Data Week

Sterling has held above €1.15 and $1.42. It's a busier week for the pound with several key releases expected.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Currency ranges were largely familiar on Friday. Sterling-euro held above 1.15 and sterling-dollar above 1.42, although both ended the day a touch softer. Euro-dollarcontinued to trade in the 1.23-1.24 band. Despite some fluctuations, sterling edged higher against the commodity currencies as well, hitting one-week highs against the New Zealand dollar.
 
The data calendar ended the week on a quieter note—though it was really a quieter week overall—with an above-forecast trade surplus figure for the Eurozone and a dip back below 100 to February levels in the US’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Rising geopolitical tensions remained in focus.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1552 1.1590 1.1342 2.14%
GBP/USD 1.4241 1.4297 1.3913 2.69%
EUR/USD 1.2327 1.2477 1.2218 2.08%
GBP/AUD 1.8363 1.8509 1.8055 2.45%
GBP/NZD 1.9393 1.9644 1.9171 2.41%
GBP/CAD 1.7974 1.8417 1.7817 3.26%

Today's Market Highlights

The week’s calendar kicks off with this afternoon’s March Retail Sales release from the US (13:30 BST). A pick-up in the figures could see a stronger dollar as investors watch for signs that the economy is on track for the Fed to raise interest rates a further two—if not three—times this year.
 
Fed member Bostic, who has supported raising rates three times this year, speaks on the economy this evening (17:15 BST). As his position on rates this year is already known, the speech may have limited impact unless it contains any surprising shifts.
 
Overnight, there are a couple of items of interest. First, the Reserve Bank of Australiareleases its latest meeting minutes. The RBA has kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% as other central banks begin to raise rates; US interest rates are now higher at a target range of 1.5-1.75%. Second, China releases a slew of data, including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures.

It’s a quiet calendar day for the UK, which means that price action in the sterling rates will likely be determined by news elsewhere or any surprise headlines. Looking ahead, it’s a busier week for the pound, with labour market data out tomorrow, inflation on Wednesday, and Retail Sales on Thursday. Positive figures could strengthen the pound, particularly on a pick-up in wage growth, and support expectations for a BoE rate hike. However, as a May rate hike has been largely priced in by markets, there may be limited additional upside potential.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
13:30 USD Retail Sales MoM (Mar) 0.4% -0.1%
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (Mar) 0.2% 0.2%
18:15 USD Fed's Bostic Speaks
02:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
03:00 CNY GDP YoY (Q1) 6.7% 6.8%
03:00 CNY GDP QoQ (Q1) 1.5% 1.6%
03:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
03:00 CNY Retail Sales YoY (Feb) 9.9% 9.7%
03:00 CNY Industrial Production 6.2% 7.2%

Caxton