Eurozone Inflation Numbers Ahead

Friday was seen as a busier calendar day, which was mainly down to GDP figures out from both the US and key European states such as France/Spain. We saw early morning weakness for sterling against the EUR (0.3%), as GDP figures came out on forecast for France (0.5%) and Spain (0.9%). This weakening trend on the currency pairing continued into the early hours of the afternoon, as we saw German CPI figures come out above forecast (1.7% vs 1.5%).

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Friday was seen as a busier calendar day, which was mainly down to GDP figures out from both the US and key European states such as France/Spain. We saw early morning weakness for sterling against the EUR (0.3%), as GDP figures came out on forecast for France (0.5%) and Spain (0.9%). This weakening trend on the currency pairing continued into the early hours of the afternoon, as we saw German CPI figures come out above forecast (1.7% vs 1.5%).
 
During the afternoon, we saw the market shift to the US with GDP figures coming out on forecast (2.6%), as well as the Consumer sentiment survey achieving above expectations (93.4 vs 93.1). Despite seeing this positive data out from the US, we saw minimal if any support for USD against sterling and other major currencies. USD continues to remain weak in particular against GBP and EUR.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1183 1.1438 1.1117 2.81%
GBP / USD 1.3120 1.3157 1.2794 2.76%
EUR / USD 1.1731 1.1776 1.1291 4.12%
GBP/AUD 1.6495 1.7107 1.6269 4.90%
GBP / NZD 1.7508 1.7994 1.7421 3.33%
GBP / CAD 1.6363 1.6978 1.6238 4.36%

Today's Market Highlights

This week we have July non-farm payrolls from the US, expected to record a further increase (183k). The US unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 4.3% to a 16 year low, and earnings growth is anticipated to increase slightly. This positive data could help provide some much needed support to the dollar.
 
There are some important releases from the Eurozone, including Q2 GDP. It is expected to have risen 0.6%. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down further, although HICP inflation is predicted to have remained at just 1.3%. Strong data here could keep the euro in retain its position of relative strength.
 
‘Super Thursday’ is the main event for the BoE. Recent weaker inflation and poor GDP growth have reduced the onus on members for a near-term rate hike. They are likely to indicate that it is keeping its policy options open, as it balances high inflation and soft growth, hence there could be more sterling sensitivity to the BoE updates this week.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.3% 1.3%
10:00 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.1% 1.1%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 60.8 65.7
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.9 -0.8