Previous Day's Market Highlights
A softer euro and dollar gains saw euro-dollar fall below 1.23 to its lowest levels since 21 March. Sterling-dollar held within the 1.40-1.41 range, while the weaker euro pushed sterling back above 1.1450 to its highest levels in over a week. Besides a spike above 1.15 following the Bank of England meeting, this marks some of the rate’s highest levels since late January.
The day’s macroeconomic data had limited market impact. UK Manufacturing PMI ticked up 0.1 points, slightly strengthening the pound. The Global Dairy Trade Price Index declined at a slower pace than at the previous auction. Earlier in the day, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold, as expected.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
UK Construction PMI typically has the least impact on sterling of the UK’s three PMI releases and may therefore see limited movement today. Attention this morning will mainly be on the preliminary estimate of March CPI in the Eurozone (10:00 BST). Headline inflation is forecast to have accelerated to 1.4% from 1.1% in February, with core inflation projected to have ticked up from 1.0% to 1.1%.
Inflation gains could strengthen the euro this morning as investors look for signals that will support the ECB’s winding down of QE and, eventually, raising interest rates. Monthly asset purchases are currently set to continue until September, and the ECB will announce its latest policy decisions on 26 April.
In the afternoon, US data will be in focus. ADP Employment Change is forecast to hold above 200K if fall back from February’s figures, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast to slow but hold well above the 50-mark consistent with industry expansion. Bullard and Mester are amongst the days’ Fed speakers, with Bullard likely to discuss the economy and Mester to speak on diversity in economics.
Overnight, a wider Australian trade deficit could weigh on the Australian dollar.
Today's Economic Calendar
|09:30||GBP||Markit Construction PMI (Mar)||50.8||51.4|
|10:00||EUR||Unemployment Rate (Feb)||8.5%||8.6%|
|10:00||EUR||Prelim CPI YoY (Mar)||1.4%||1.1%|
|10:00||EUR||Prelim Core CPI YoY (Mar)||1.1%||1.0%|
|13:15||USD||ADP Employment Change (Mar)||208K||235K|
|14:45||USD||Fed's Bullard Speaks|
|14:45||USD||Markit Services PMI (Mar)||54.3||54.1|
|15:00||USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)||59.0||59.5|
|15:00||USD||Factory Orders MoM (Feb)||1.7%||-1.4%|
|15:30||USD||EIA Crude Oil Inventories (30 Mar)||1.667M||1.643M|
|16:00||USD||Fed's Mester Speaks|
|01:30||AUD||Trade Balance (Feb)||-247M||1,055M|