Previous Day's Market Highlights
The euro jumped overnight as the EU Summit reached a deal on migration. Division over the migration crisis poses a threat to the unity of the EU and thus to the euro. This pushed sterling-euro further below 1.13 to its lowest levels since mid-March. Euro-dollar jumped around 0.7%, regaining 1.16. After hitting new lows since November, sterling-dollar reclaimed 1.31, gaining in part because of overnight euro-driven dollar weakness.
Yesterday, the final estimate of Q1 GDP in the US saw a downwards revision to 2%; the dollar impact was limited. Preliminary German HCIP figures were largely as expected, while Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator and Business Climate figures were mixed.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
The EU Summit continues today. In addition to keeping an eye on the latest migration and Brexit headlines, markets will also watch the day’s data. The final estimate of Q1 GDP in the UK is expected to find growth was unrevised at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year (09:30 BST). A lack of revision could see a limited sterling impact. Brexit headlines remain a downside risk.
Preliminary Eurozone inflation figures (10:00) are forecast to be mixed, with headline CPI rising to 2% but core CPI falling back to 1.0% from 1.1%; signs that core inflation remains subdued could weigh on the euro.
In the afternoon, Canada releases monthly GDP, a slowdown in which could weaken the loonie, and the US releases Personal Consumption Expenditures, Income, and Spending data (13:30). A rise in PCE inflation could strengthen the dollar.
Today's Economic Calendar
|9:30am||GBP||GDP QoQ (Q1)||0.1%||0.1%|
|9:30am||GBP||GDP YoY (Q1)||1.2%||1.2%|
|9:30am||GBP||Total Business Investment YoY (Q1)||2%||2%|
|9:30am||GBP||Current Account (Q1)||£-18.00B||£-18.44B|
|10:00am||EUR||CPI YoY (Jun)||2.0%||1.9%|
|10:00am||EUR||Core CPI YoY (Jun)||1.0%||1.1%|
|1:30pm||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index YoY (May)||2.2%||2.0%|
|1:30pm||USD||Core PCE - Price Index YoY (May)||1.9%||1.8%|
|1:30pm||USD||Personal Spending (May)||0.4%||0.6%|
|1:30pm||USD||Personal Income (May)||0.4%||0.3%|
|1:30pm||CAD||GDP MoM (Apr)||0.0%||0.3%|
|2:45pm||USD||Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Jun)||60.0||62.7|
|3:00pm||USD||Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jun)||99.2||99.3|
|3:30pm||CAD||BoC Business Outlook Survey|