EM Currencies Fall, USD Gains on Contagion Concerns

The dollar gained and emerging market currencies weakened as contagion fears saw a turn to safe havens. EUR/USD fell to July 2017 lows.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Friday was a day of fluctuations in currency markets. The lira tumbled dramatically on ongoing concerns over Turkey’s financial system. This led to a turn to safe haven assets, like the US dollar, and weighed on others, like the euro and EM currencies like the South African rand and Mexican peso, as markets considered the potential contagion implications. Trump announced a doubling of metals tariffs on Turkey. The Russian rouble also came under pressure on US sanctions.
 
Euro-dollar fell below 1.15 for the first time since July 2017 and sterling-dollar below 1.28 to its lowest levels since June 2017, while sterling-euro picked up pace towards the 1.12 level in light of the single currency’s weakness. The dollar was softer in the afternoon session and the pound picked up pace, recovering earlier losses against the euro, dollar, and commodity currencies.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1187 1.1342 1.1073 2.37%
GBP/USD 1.2743 1.3293 1.2723 4.29%
EUR/USD 1.1391 1.1750 1.1365 3.28%
GBP/AUD 1.7507 1.7849 1.7284 3.17%
GBP/NZD 1.9366 1.9580 1.9077 2.57%
GBP/CAD 1.6758 1.7469 1.6741 4.17%

Today's Market Highlights

The calendar is quiet today, which may keep exchange rates on hold around current levels. Focus will remain on emerging markets and geopolitical headlines as the Turkish lira and other EM currencies remain vulnerable. This morning, euro-dollar edged lower to fall below 1.14 for the first time since last July, when the rate broke out of its 2.5-year range to sustain a move above 1.15.
 
The calendar picks up as the week goes on. On Tuesday, UK employment data and Eurozone GDP are in focus, UK CPI and US Retail Sales are key on Wednesday, Australian employment data and UK Retail Sales are out on Thursday, and Friday sees CPI data from the Eurozone and Canada.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
2:30am AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (Jul) 6 6
3:00am CNY Industrial Production YoY (Jul) 6.3% 6.0%

Caxton