ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole Awaited

The ECB minutes are awaited today while the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium agenda is expected overnight. Fed Chair Powell is to speak tomorrow.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

The pound continued to trade around 12-day highs after an initial retracement on concerns that a Brexit deal could be pushed back beyond the preferred October deadline. Sterling later made limited additional headway against the dollar above 1.29. Euro-dollar touched 1.16 for the first time since 9 August.
 
The Fed meeting minutes indicated that the Fed is on track to raise interest rates next month but remained concerned about the implications of a trade war. The dollar initially weakened before recouping some ground against both the euro and the pound. Sterling-dollar fell back below 1.29 and euro-dollar below 1.16 overnight.  
 
Political uncertainty weighed on the Aussie after the resignation of several of Prime Minister Turnbull’s cabinet ministers overnight. This pushed sterling-Aussie higher above 1.76 to hit nearly three-week highs.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1133 1.1294 1.1073 1.96%
GBP/USD 1.2874 1.3213 1.2666 4.14%
EUR/USD 1.1564 1.1746 1.1301 3.79%
GBP/AUD 1.7648 1.7825 1.7284 3.04%
GBP/NZD 1.9287 1.9457 1.9077 1.95%
GBP/CAD 1.6791 1.7221 1.6596 3.63%

Today's Market Highlights

It’s the ECB’s turn to release its latest meeting minutes (12:30 BST). Markets will watch for any additional insight into the ECB’s inflation and interest rate expectations. Unless there is any new information, the market impact may be relatively limited.
 
US data are in focus in the afternoon, with the Purchasing Managers’ Indices forecast to slip and the Housing Price Index and New Home Sales to pick up. Overnight, New Zealand’s trade deficit is forecast to have widened.
 
The release of the government’s no-deal planning documents today could renew market focus on no-deal Brexit fears and recent headlines, posing a risk to the pound’s strength. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium agenda will be released overnight; Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak tomorrow.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm USD Initial Jobless Claims (17 Aug) 215K 212K
2:00pm USD Housing Price Index MoM (Jun) 0.3% 0.2%
2:45pm USD Prelim Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 55.0 55.3
2:45pm USD Prelim Markit Services PMI (Aug) 55.9 56.0
3:00pm USD New Home Sales MoM (Jul) 0.645M 0.631M
3:00pm EUR Prelim Consumer Confidence (Aug) -0.7 -0.6
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance MoM (Jul) $-400M $-113M
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance YoY (Jul) $-4.52B $-4.03B

Caxton