Currency Rates Eye Familiar Levels

Exchange rates continue to trade in familiar ranges. US Retail Sales and the Trump/Putin Summit are among the day's highlights.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling proved vulnerable to Trump’s comments on Friday, falling into the morning session after Trump criticised Prime Minister May’s Brexit approach, only to recover ground heading into the afternoon after Trump backed down from earlier criticism and said a trade deal with the UK is still possible.
 
Sterling-dollar recovered 1.32 and sterling-euro continued to trade either side of 1.13, little changed from the start of the week. A softer dollar enabled euro-dollar to recover some of its morning losses when the dollar caught a bid tone.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1326 1.1461 1.1234 1.98%
GBP/USD 1.3248 1.3363 1.3049 2.35%
EUR/USD 1.1698 1.1791 1.1510 2.38%
GBP/AUD 1.7814 1.7981 1.7472 2.83%
GBP/NZD 1.9542 1.9622 1.8932 3.52%
GBP/CAD 1.7412 1.7791 1.7168 3.50%

Today's Market Highlights

Eurozone trade data is expected to show a slightly wider trade surplus (10:00 BST), but the overall currency impact may be relatively limited. In the afternoon, slower Retail Sales growth in June could weigh on the US dollar (13:30). New Zealand releases quarterly CPI in the evening, with inflation forecast to remain at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter but pick up at year-on-year. Investors will also keep an eye on any headlines from today’s Trump/Putin summit. Overall, exchange rates may continue to trade in familiar ranges.
 
Later in the week, highlights include UK labour market and inflation data, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony, final Eurozone CPI, UK Retail Sales, and Canadian CPI and Retail Sales. Attention will also remain on the latest trade and Brexit headlines.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00am EUR Trade Balance €17.6B €18.1B
1:30pm USD Retail Sales MoM (Jun) 0.5% 0.8%
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales MoM (Jun) 0.4% 0.9%
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (May) $7.03B $9.13B
11:45pm NZD Consumer Price Index YoY (Q2) 1.6% 1.1%
11:45pm NZD Consumer Price Index QoQ (Q2) 0.5% 0.5%
2:30am AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Caxton