Currency markets treading water ahead of G20

With the Fed set to hike rates in December currency markets wait and see what will come of the G20 summit.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling fell once again on Thursday, losing 0.4% across the board, as continued Brexit fears and gloomy Bank of England projections weighed on the pound. The main highlight however was the release of minutes from the latest Fed meeting which showed that FOMC members believed a further rate increase would be warranted “fairly soon”. Despite this, the dollar was broadly unchanged as investors are in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of the outcome of this weekend’s G20 summit. 
  
Elsewhere, Canadian current account figures showed a narrowing deficit and UK mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since January. 
 
Away from FX, equity markets closed marginally lower, despite early gains, as the market digested the Fed minutes. Oil prices (Brent and WTI) gained around 0.5% on expectations of a supply cut being agreed between OPEC and Russia.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1227 1.1506 1.1194 2.71%
GBP/USD 1.2779 1.3175 1.2723 3.43%
EUR/USD 1.1381 1.1500 1.1275 1.96%
GBP/AUD 1.7477 1.8148 1.7403 4.11%
GBP/NZD 1.8622 1.9648 1.8612 5.27%
GBP/CAD 1.6991 1.7285 1.6784 2.90%

Today's Market Highlights

It is a busier economic calendar to end the week with the main highlight coming from the eurozone with the latest set of inflation figures released in the morning session. Estimates are for CPI inflation to tick down to 2% with core CPI set to remain flat at 1.1%. Investors will look closely at these inflation figures as the ECB begin to remove crisis-era stimulus from the market and are set to raise interest rates by the end of next year.

Elsewhere, Canadian GDP for the third quarter is set to be released, showing growth of 2% on an annualised quarter-on-quarter basis. Market participants will look for a solid reading to allay fears of an economic slowdown amid a backdrop of low local oil prices and weak industrial activity. An above forecast release will likely underpin the Canadian dollar. The only other macro data highlight is the monthly Swiss economic barometer.

Away from data, the G20 summit begins today in Buenos Aires. Focus will be on a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi with a view to deescalation of Sino-US trade tensions, this is set to determine risk sentiment heading into December. 

Data highlights next week include PMI figures from the UK and US, central bank meetings in Australia and Canada and the monthly US labour market report.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) 2.0% 2.2%
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) 1.1% 1.1%
1:30pm CAD GDP (q/q - annualised) 2.0% 2.9%
All Day Global G20 Summit - Day 1