Central Banks in Focus Again Today

The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP in the US is the main release today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

As was widely expected, the ECB kept interest rates on hold. Overall, the statement and accompanying comments were consistent with those made in June. The ECB has said that interest rates are expected to remain very low until “at least through the summer of 2019”. The euro was softer around the meeting.
 
Sterling-dollar gave up 1.32 and euro-dollar fell back below 1.17. Under-forecast US Durable Goods Orders did little to deter the dollar’s gains. Sterling-euro continued to trade in the 1.12-1.13 range.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1248 1.1364 1.1163 1.77%
GBP/USD 1.3112 1.3363 1.2958 3.03%
EUR/USD 1.1655 1.1791 1.1562 1.94%
GBP/AUD 1.7736 1.7958 1.7569 2.17%
GBP/NZD 1.9283 1.9622 1.9198 2.16%
GBP/CAD 1.7134 1.7479 1.7106 2.13%

Today's Market Highlights

Today’s releases are mostly mid-level. A pick-up in UK Mortgage Approvals could lend some support to the pound this morning (09:30 BST). The euro will keep an eye on Business Climate and German inflation data, amongst other releases (10:00, 13:00). A decline in Pending Home Sales (15:00) could weigh slightly on the dollar. Politics will remain in focus as markets watch for any further developments in US trade and geopolitical relations.
 
Later in the week, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday, while expectations are high for the Bank of England to announce a rate hike of 25 basis points on Thursday. Although now expected, a hike could still strengthen the pound. The Eurozone has both Q2 GDP and preliminary July inflation figures. In addition to Wednesday’s Fed decision, the US also has July’s jobs report out at the end of the week.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 65.500K 64.526K
10:00 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator (Jul) 112.2 112.3
10:00 EUR Business Climate (Jul) 1.35 1.39
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jul) -0.6 -0.6
13:00 EUR German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices YoY (Jul) 2.1% 2.1%
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales YoY (Jun) -6.0% -2.2%
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun) 0.1% -0.5%
23:45 NZD Building Permits s.a. MoM (Jun) 7.1%

Caxton