Caxton Morning Report: Sterling in Focus with Queen’s Speech Due

Sterling fell across the board yesterday after BoE Governor Carney said in his rescheduled Mansion House speech that it is not time to raise interest rates. The pound fell around 0.6% against both the euro and the dollar to below 1.1400 and 1.2700, respectively.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling fell across the board yesterday after BoE Governor Carney said in his rescheduled Mansion House speech that it is not time to raise interest rates. The pound fell around 0.6% against both the euro and the dollar to below 1.1400 and 1.2700, respectively.
 
Steady sterling weakness throughout the day saw sterling-dollar fall to new lows since PM May announced the snap election on 18 April. Sterling-euro held above YTD lows.
 
Oil fell into bear market territory yesterday, with prices down over 20% from the 2017 high hit on 23 February, despite OPEC production cuts. The Canadian dollar has been relatively strong against the pound recently after the BoC struck a more hawkish tone.
 
Sterling is currently trading around two-month lows against the Aussie and Canadiandollars and around three-month lows against the kiwi dollar.
Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP / EUR 1.1328 1.1624 1.1277 2.99%
GBP / USD 1.2609 1.3018 1.2606 3.20%
EUR / USD 1.1131 1.1296 1.1109 1.66%
GBP/AUD 1.6662 1.7494 1.6612 5.04%
GBP / NZD 1.7433 1.8569 1.7414 6.22%
GBP / CAD 1.6741 1.7572 1.6721 4.84%

Today's Market Highlights

Attention will primarily be on the State Opening of Parliament this morning. The Queen’sSpeech is at 11:30 BST and will outline the government’s goals. Parliament votes on the speech on 28-29 June.
 
Sterling traders will also keep an eye on Public Sector Net Borrowing (09:30 BST) and a speech from MPC Member Haldane (12:00 BST), who is typically one of the more dovish MPC members.
 
Oil and commodity currencies will be in focus this afternoon with the release of the weekly EIA Crude Oil inventories (15:00 BST).
 
This evening, the RBNZ is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.75%. While inflation has picked up, economic growth was slower than forecast in Q1. 

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) £7.300B £9.648B
11:30 GBP Queen's Speech
12:00 GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (May) 5.55M 5.57M
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Jun 16) -2.180M -1.661M
22:00 22:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%
22:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement