Previous Day's Market Highlights
Sterling rallied in the morning as BoE Governor Carney was relatively upbeat in comments, reiterating that Q1 softness was likely due to bad weather and saying that tighter monetary policy will be needed. This increased expectations for an August rate rise and kept the pound up at around one-week highs against the dollar.
However, sterling fell in the afternoon session on reports that Germany wouldn’t support Prime Minister May’s latest Brexit customs union proposals. As a result, sterling-euro dropped below 1.13 and sterling-dollar fell back towards 1.32. Sterling gave up earlier gains against the commodity currencies.
Euro-dollar broke above 1.17 for the first time since 26 June. The US’s ADP Employment Change reading was lower than forecast. Last night, the Fed meeting minutes revealed that while the Fed sees two more hikes as likely appropriate, there is rising concern over trade policy. The currency impact was muted.
|Currency Pairing||08:00 Today||Vs 08:00 Yesterday||Four-Week High||Four-Week Low||% Change|
Today's Market Highlights
The calendar picks up today after a reasonably quiet week. Prime Minister May’s cabinet heads to Chequers to assemble a Brexit white paper on the UK’s desired future relationship with the EU. Any headlines that come out of today’s event pose a downside risk to the pound.
In the afternoon, attention will be on the US’s June jobs report (13:30), which is typically a source of market volatility. Alongside the Unemployment Rate remaining at its lowest levels since 2000, a pick-up in NonFarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings could see the dollar strength, while a mixed set of prints could instead weigh on the greenback.
Canada releases trade and labour market data (13:30). The picture may be mixed for the Canadian dollar with the trade deficit forecast to have widened and the Net Change in Employment to have increased.
Today's Economic Calendar
|1:30pm||USD||Unemployment Rate (Jun)||3.8%||3.8%|
|1:30pm||USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)||195K||223K|
|1:30pm||USD||Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jun)||0.3%||0.3%|
|1:30pm||USD||Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jun)||2.8%||2.7%|
|1:30pm||USD||Trade Balance (May)||$-43.7B||$-46.2B|
|1:30pm||CAD||International Merchandise Trade (May)||$-2.05B||$-1.90B|
|1:30pm||CAD||Unemployment Rate (Jun)||5.8%||5.8%|
|1:30pm||CAD||Net Change In Employment (Jun)||24.0K||-7.5K|
|3:00pm||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (Jun)||63.2||62.5|