Bank of Canada Hike Expected

The BoC is widely expected to hike interest rates this afternoon. Otherwise, the calendar is relatively quiet today.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling picked up yesterday morning ahead of the release of a raft of UK data, only to fall back as the figures largely disappointed. Manufacturing and Industrial Production were slower than projected both month-on-month and year-on-year, with Manufacturing Production unexpectedly declining from April to May. In the first print of the new GDP publishing format, data found that GDP grew by 0.3% in May, as forecast, and 0.2% in the three months to May. Q2 data will be released in August.
 
This saw sterling-dollar head lower in the 1.32-1.33 band and sterling-euro halt gains ahead of 1.13. Overall rates continued to trade in familiar ranges. On the euro side, the ZEW surveys showed that Economic Sentiment deteriorated further in both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, putting some pressure on the single currency. Canadian housing data surprised to the upside, helping the loonie to stem earlier losses against the pound.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1308 1.1471 1.1234 2.07%
GBP/USD 1.3265 1.3448 1.3049 2.97%
EUR/USD 1.1730 1.1853 1.1510 2.89%
GBP/AUD 1.7902 1.7981 1.7472 2.83%
GBP/NZD 1.9467 1.9622 1.8925 3.55%
GBP/CAD 1.7427 1.7791 1.7168 3.50%

Today's Market Highlights

ECB member Villeroy said earlier that interest rates would occur at the earliest “through the summer of 2019”, consistent with the message from the June meeting. ECB President Draghi did not discuss monetary policy in a speech at the ECB’s Statistics Conference. The euro is little changed.
 
The dollar could see some support from gains in the Producer Price Index (13:30) this afternoon. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at the National Bureau of Economic Research on the global financial crisis (16:35 BST). Exchange rates could again remain around familiar levels.
 
This afternoon, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5% (15:00). The probability of a hike as indicated by the OIS market is around 96%. This follows data out last week that showed that Canada added more jobs to the economy than expected in June. The loonie could strengthen on the move, particularly if the Bank is more hawkish than expected on forward guidance, but dovish signals going forward could put pressure on the loonie.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
1:00pm EUR ECB Member Praet Speaks
1:30pm USD Producer Price Index YoY (Jun) 3.2% 5.1%
1:30pm USD Core Producer Price Index YoY (Jun) 2.6% 2.4%
3:00pm CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 1.50% 1.25%
3:00pm CAD BoC Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Report
3:30pm USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2 Jul) -4.324M 1.245M
4:15pm CAD BoC Press Conference
4:35pm GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks
5:30pm USD Fed Member Bostic Speaks
9:30pm USD Fed Member Williams Speaks

Caxton