36 hours to save the pound

Judgement day is looming for sterling.

Previous Day's Market Highlights

Sterling lost a lot of ground yesterday against the dollar but remained choppy vs. the euro. The dollar was boosted against both currencies despite a sparse macro calendar with no data to influence the FX markets – partly due to veteran’s day in the US.
Brexit news flow continued to leave sterling prone to sharp movements, with concerns still circling around the Irish border and a much feared backstop solution. Markets are still very cautious that May’s plan may be rejected by parliament – causing further delay.

Currency Pairing 08:00 Today Vs 08:00 Yesterday Four-Week High Four-Week Low % Change
GBP/EUR 1.1465 1.1506 1.1172 2.90%
GBP/USD 1.2876 1.3236 1.2691 4.12%
EUR/USD 1.1231 1.1621 1.1212 3.52%
GBP/AUD 1.7858 1.8563 1.7857 3.80%
GBP/NZD 1.9073 2.0101 1.9059 5.18%
GBP/CAD 1.7034 1.7189 1.6637 3.21%

Today's Market Highlights

On the macro data front, labour market data out from the UK today is expected to continue to remain consistent with a tightening one. Morsels of upside could be provided to Sterling if the data reinforces this given the BoE’s position on domestic cost pressures.
The markets however will be pouncing immediately on any Brexit related news flow as an apparent ‘judgement day’ is looming. President of the EU council, Donald Tusk, has stated that the deadline for a submission for a November EU summit is Wednesday – and if beyond that, a summit will be mid-December. This leaves sparse time for any deal to be agreed by the 27 member states, and this is dependent on the deal being passed through parliament unchallenged – something May’s cohorts tell her is incredibly unlikely. Negotiations have been going on through the night and although last night’s discussions until 3am ended with “optimism on both sides”, the border issue as among a number still to be resolved and the clock is ticking.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time Currency Release Consensus Previous
9:30am GBP Average Earnings (3m/y) 3.0% 2.7%
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4.3K 18.5K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -25.0 -24.7
11:50pm JPY Preliminary GDP (q/q) -0.2% 0.7%